(This post badly misrepresents the difference between Usain Bolt and Tyson Gay’s 100m times. The actual difference is closer to 1%)
This past weekend, Usain Bolt ran 100 meters in 9.58 seconds —by far the best time ever recorded. The performance makes Bolt faster than any other man in history by a full 10%*—roughly the same margin by which Mark McGuire eclipsed Roger Maris’ single-season home run record in 1998.
Don’t take this post as incendiary—I’m hoping as fervently as possible that Bolt’s performances come with no asterisks. I’m just here to point out the fairly easy ride he’s getting.
When Alberto Contador exceeded Riis’ climbing rate by 1% this summer, the whole world muttered “doper”. Just imagine the response if a cyclist broke the current Hour Record by a full five kilometers—the same 10% accomplished by Bolt’s recent 100m performance.
Before 2005, only one man—Maurice Greene—had ever run under 9.8 seconds in the 100m, and even his long and illustrious career, he only ever managed it once. Since 2005, the feat has been accomplished a staggering 18 times by five sprinters—of these, one is currently serving a doping suspension, and another is currently in jail.
If the sudden ability of many athletes to achieve the previously unachievable doesn’t mirror the effects of EPO on cycling, or steroids on the MLB, I don’t know what does. Technical improvements like compression garments or better-designed spikes could be improving times, but advent of dramatically lighter and more aerodynamic parts to the peloton still didn’t explain away the record-setting Tours of the late 90s. Nor did the occasional corked bat prove the innocence of baseball.
Bolt has plenty going in his favor as a a unique specimen among sprinters; even accepting the supposition that something is rotten amongst 100m runners, Bolt is miles beyond them. And for those who believe the absence of evidence argument, he’s never failed a drugs test, nor had anything rumored against him.
But with second-best Tyson Gay revealing his full blood profile, and with suspicion always swirling around how seriously Jamaica takes drug testing, I think an examination of the idea that Bolt just might be doping deserves a little more effort—in fairness to cyclists, at the very least.
Yeesh – some of those runners make most pro cyclists look like angels. If the doping doesn’t work or you get caught, just turn to other types of crime. I don’t like to cast stones, especially without evidence, but I’ll remain skeptical given the apparent extent of doping in track and the way the numbers add up. As for cyclists taking the rap, maybe that’s an inevitable stage in a sport’s visible efforts to clean itself up. And humans get so confused between the propensity for hero worship and love of the smell of scandal.
The European feed of the event that I watched openly questioned the result. The announcer, commenting on the feat after the fact (while the camera panned the crowd and focused for a moment on an awestruck Prince Albert of Monaco), said (paraphrasing) “If the results come back neutral, this will be remembered as one of the greatest feats in track and field history.” The sports press has been covering Jamaican doping lately, I don’t think this has gone unnoticed.
And one tenth of a second (or, rather, the 11 hundredths) is only one percent faster than the next fastest man (.11 of 9.5) not ten. /pedant
Pedantry is calling me out on a dangling participle. When I blow easy math, it definitely needs to be pointed out.
As for media coverage, the reception I’ve seen to Bolt’s accomplishment has been almost entirely uncritical. The “always been fast” arguments used on ESPN as an insurance against doping never seemed to carry much weight with Armstrong (winning pro Triathlons in his teens) and Contador (considered a future Tour winner for years).
Guess it pays to check the arithmetic rather than take things as they appear 🙂 Still doesn’t diminish your point entirely…
Well, if you really want to get selective with statistics, you could point out that Bolt’s WR margin is 10% better than the next fastest (Gay .01 sec faster than Powell, Bolt .11 faster than Gay). This works for the single-season HR record as well (Maris was one HR better than Ruth, McGuire 9 HRs better than Maris) from 1998.
But as you say, the point remains the same, though the numbers are less impressive. So I see no reason to resort to statistical trickery to cover my boneheaded mistakes.
I felt bad about it because your point holds – 11 hundredths is huge. What I wonder is if track has such a doping problem, why didn’t we see jumps like this in the 90s when these men and women were at the forefront of EPO? I’d like to see Nate Silver or some other math/sport wiz track the rate of falling times and rising speeds over the last 30 years.
One could certainly argue (based on nothing more than suspicion) that a dirty Bolt is still setting records because the rest of the field is held to more scrutiny. But I doubt Trinidad and Tobago has a sophisticated anti-dopage agency and all of the racers are going faster. Second and third place would have set world records with their times a year ago. Powell has consistently been one of the fastest men on earth for several years and he was right there (ok, within two steps). Even in the face of possibly-lax Jamaican anti-dopage, Bolt was insanely fast last year when he was under constant scrutiny in the approach to the olympics. Surely he was tested for everything under the sun then and he still set a WR while showboating.
Personally, I think the reason most people aren’t questioning him is because of his height. When he’s that much taller than everyone else it’s easier to convince yourself that he’s just a freak of nature. If Tyson Gay or Powell were the ones to run a 9.59 then I believe everyone would be more suspicious.
Seriously – there is far more doping in cycling than in track and field. Sing your blues somewhere else – no one will feel sorry for what cycling has done to itself!
“Sing your blues somewhere else”?
Yeah, uh, because a cycling blog that I own and maintain is totally not the forum for this…
@ The Real Deal: You are an idiot. Cycling definitely has some self-inflicted wounds, but the guy makes a valid point and its his blog about cycling…duh.
Regardless, I just don’t buy superhuman feats in professional sports anymore. I’ve been disappointed too many times. Shame on me.
Cosmo – Do you own this blog, or do you lease with an option to buy? How in the world did you save enough to own this blog? You must have done very well in real estate… How many swimmers were busted this year for doping? How many runners? Now how many cyclist have been busted? Countless, dude. Don’t hate Bolt, hate your sport. Rather than ask why people don’t question outstanding performances in other sports, ask why people continue to question every cycling performance. The percentage of cheaters in cycling is disgusting. Own that blog!
Wow, trolls are awesome sometimes. I’d give that one a 7.5
Aaanyway, I remember watching the 100m in the Olympics and as Bolt’s time was posted, almost immediately thinking, “He’s prooobably juiced…”
That’s because you are a cycling fan, Nick. That’s how you are programmed to think. That’s what these idiots have done to you. Time has shown us Bolt was not juiced, brother!
No matter what sport is in question today it’s logical to wonder about world record performances. There are just too many instances of athletes using drugs. I am a former track athlete and think there are just as many cases of track athletes using drugs as cyclists. In the case of Bolt, given how much he improved during the last two years its almost a given people will question the performances he’s done recently. He either decided to start real training or something else is going on. For a 6′ 5″ sprinter to increase his speed that much something drastic had to happen. Somehow he became strong enough to turn over his stride with equal frequency as the shorter sprinters. He doesn’t look that much different now than 3 years ago so perhaps he isn’t on steroids, but until the tests come back its reasonable to question
“Wow, trolls are awesome sometimes. I’d give that one a 7.5”
Agreed – but just wait for the TED’s to arrive (that’s Tolling Enhancing Drugs btw). we’ll be splitting the hairs of between 7.5 & 7.501
sheesh
Cosmo – “Wah…..Bolt just broke another world record….WAH….why do people always question cyclists like me but not track and field athletes….WAH….it’s Just Not Fair!….WAH…..if I put as much effort into my training as I do my Blog,” which I own and is totally paid for, maybe I could be a better athlete…..WAH!
Hey Cosmo – you think Bolt owns a blog like this?
Take the sand out of your vagina, Cosmo, and deal with the fact that your sport sets the standard for doping for all sports! I think the IAAF should give you a gender test!
“Take the sand out of your vagina, Cosmo, and deal with the fact that your sport sets the standard for doping for all sports! I think the IAAF should give you a gender test!”
Ummm, this is really sexist. Please fuck off.
I don’t agree with much of what has been said here, and really don’t appreciate the sophomoric attempts at humor. However, this comment thread does bring to light an interesting observation.
How many world records were set at the world swimming championship held in Rome this year? I lost count when it got to 40. While some of the world records can certainly be attributed to swimsuit technology, most were set not by athletes of color – athletes that don’t look like most of the athletes that were in Berlin. Yet one black man sets one world record in Berlin, and you immediately post questioning why there isn’t more international scrunity on him and his performance?
As a black man, I’m quite insulted by this.
Phil/Reel Deal/Dan,
Google “Whois” and find another blog to troll. Kthxbai.
Performance enhancing drugs aside, Bolt is an absolute beast. The scariest thing is that he looks like he slows down before he finishes every race. Don’t know the truth to this myth, but i read/heard somewhere that he is paid a ridiculous amount of money by the Jamaican govt. every time he wins a WW. If it is true, it would rationalize why he has set, and continues to set, so many records.